Trust Noone

With stock markets around all-time highs and traders looking at an incoming bear market, it is always good to remember that the big trades, the real money-making ones are those that are very difficult to see coming because the moves are so far off the normals.

(see @morganhousel)

When technicals, analysts and quants all drive you to the same decision or strategy, you are just following the herd and will only share whatever little money is available. There is little value.

However if you trust your instincts and are willing to take some financial pain to see your position through, then that’s where the big bucks are. It is the equivalent of the ‘blue ocean’ strategy in the start-up world.

If everyone is doing it, there is no money left. Move along and find something else.